Probabilistic Analysis

The Probabilistic Analysis allows network assessment based on probabilistic input data rather than assessment of individual operation scenarios or time sweeps. It becomes important as soon as input parameters are known to be random or if one wants to simulate the grid at some time in the future with forecast errors.

A probabilistic assessment processes probabilistic data input and produces stochastic results.

Probabilistic Analysis is offered for:

  • Load Flow Analysis;
  • Optimal Power Flow.1
  • Network assessment based on probabilistic input data
  • Supports Probabilistic Load Flow and Probabilistic Assessment of OPF1
  • Unlimited stochastic input data modelling with flexible distribution curve objects
  • Includes probabilistic modelling of generation with PV systems and/or wind generators, as well as variable load consumption
  • Support of numerous distributions, such as uniform, normal, log-normal, Weibull, exponential, geometric, Bernoulli, finite discrete
  • Modelling of dependencies via correlation objects
  • Auto-conversion tool to estimate distributions and correlations based on historic profiles/time series data
  • Monte Carlo and fast Quasi-Monte Carlo method
  • Determination of statistical results for any calculation quantity, including means and standard deviations (with their confidence intervals), maxima, minima, higher order momenta
  • Rich post-processing and plotting facilities for calculation results, including their distribution functions, density functions, correlations
  • Post-assessment of critical worst-case or average cases via Probabilistic Analyzer

1Probabilistic assessment of OPF also requires Optimal Power Flow licence